International Security
The post-Cold War era has seen a dramatic shift in the global security landscape. Gone are the days of a bipolar world order, defined by the clear-cut rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union. In its place is a complex, multipolar system characterized by the rise of new powers, the proliferation of non-state actors, and the emergence of novel, transnational threats.
Great Power Rivalry
The rise of China as a near-peer competitor to the United States, coupled with Russia's resurgence on the global stage, has reignited fears of great power conflict. As tensions simmer in hot spots like the South China Sea, the Arctic, and the Baltics, the risk of miscalculation or escalation threatens to destabilize the entire international system.
Erosion of the Rules-Based Order
The post-WWII international system, anchored in institutions like the United Nations and norms like the prohibition on territorial conquest, is under strain. From Russia's annexation of Crimea to the unraveling of landmark arms control treaties like New START, the erosion of the rules-based order is making the world a more volatile and dangerous place.
Weaponization of Emerging Technologies
The development of AI, autonomous systems, and biotechnology is revolutionizing every aspect of our lives - including warfare. The proliferation of these dual-use technologies raises risks, from cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure to the development of lethal autonomous weapons.
Climate Change as a Threat Multiplier
Climate change is not just an environmental issue - it's a threat multiplier that exacerbates other security challenges. From fueling resource competition and migration to amplifying the devastation of natural disasters, the impacts of a warming planet could upend societies, strain alliances, and even lead to state failure in some of the world's most vulnerable regions.
Global Catastrophic Risk
Perhaps the most alarming feature of the new threat matrix is the growing specter of global catastrophic risks - events that could inflict devastating harm on a global scale, potentially even threatening the survival of human civilization. These risks arise from a variety of sources, including advanced technologies, environmental degradation, and geopolitical instability.
