At Meridian, we recognize that the actions we take today have the potential to shape the trajectory of humanity's future. Our generation is but one page in a much longer story, and our most important role may be how we shape — or fail to shape — that story.

The number of human lives that could exist in the future is staggering. If humanity survives as long as the typical mammalian species (1 million years), with a stable population of 11 billion and an average lifespan of 88 years, there could be 100 trillion people alive over the next 800,000 years. Depending on humanity's trajectory, this number could be orders of magnitude higher—or tragically cut short by existential catastrophe.

Challenges and Opportunities for Long-term Progress

Challenges:

  • Existential risks: Threats such as engineered pandemics, runaway climate change, unconstrained artificial general intelligence, or a global totalitarian regime empowered by advanced technology could permanently end humanity's progress or even lead to extinction. Mitigating these risks is crucial for safeguarding our long-term potential.

  • Stagnation and regression: Even short of catastrophe, humanity's progress could slow or reverse if we fail to address challenges like declining economic dynamism, unfavorable demographic shifts, or the erosion of democratic norms and institutions. Sustaining the conditions for continued progress requires active effort.

  • Frontiers of science and technology: Many of the greatest opportunities for long-term progress lie in pushing the boundaries of scientific understanding and technological capabilities. However, these frontiers also pose risks and ethical quandaries that we must navigate carefully, such as the implications of powerful AI systems or the potential to alter our biological or cognitive makeup.

  • Cluelessness and uncertainty: The further we look into the future, the harder it becomes to predict the consequences of our actions. Careful reasoning and empirical research are needed to identify the best ways to positively influence the long term.

Opportunities:

  • Realizing our cosmic endowment: Farsighted thinkers like Nick Beckstead have argued that our vast universe represents an astronomical endowment for fueling long-term progress. If we can expand sustainably into the cosmos, the opportunities for growth and flourishing could be virtually unbounded.

  • Shaping transformative technologies: The development of technologies like artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and nanotechnology could radically transform the human condition. Helping to ensure that these technologies are developed safely and beneficially could be one of the most important things we can do.

  • Shaping positive values and institutions: The values and institutions we build today will shape the context in which future progress unfolds. By promoting values like global cooperation, evidenced-based reasoning, respect for individual rights, and concern for all of humanity, we can create a foundation for positive progress far into the future.

  • Expanding our moral circle: By extending our consideration to all of humanity—present and future—we can ensure that our actions are guided by truly impartial concern for all. This could lead to a future characterised by greater compassion, cooperation, and flourishing.